The US is dealing with a rare bifurcation of the economy, and it's raising the odds of recession, Piper Sandler chief economist says
The US economy is facing a rare and difficult bifurcation, Piper Sandler's head economist said.
Big companies have withstood or even benefited from high rates, while consumers feel the squeeze.
The economist forecast a 53% chance of a recession but said one was needed to lower inflation.
The US is navigating a "bifurcated" economy that's been seen only twice before, with both times ending in a recession, according to a top economist.
Nancy Lazar, Piper Sandler's chief global economist, told Fox Business Network on Wednesday that the economic backdrop was "very difficult" and "very unusual," and occurred only during the energy crisis in 1978-79 and the Great Recession in 2008.
"You have those that are benefiting from higher interest rates," Lazar said. "You have those that are suffering from higher interest rates, those that can pay for these higher prices, and those that are really getting squeezed."
She said large businesses had been riding high on interest income, favorable financial conditions from locking in low-cost debt, surging stock rallies, and hefty government support.
Meanwhile, consumers are feeling the squeeze, facing mounting debts at elevated interest rates while inflation eats into wage gains.
"At the end of the day, the interest-rate structure had to go higher for longer, and in turn, eventually, you did have a recession, and that's how you eventually crushed the excesses and inflation," she said.
Lazar forecast a 53% chance of a recession but said we "need a recession" to tackle the inflation problem.
Otherwise, "you're going to have a big group of people, a big group of companies continue to spend, continue to bid up these prices," she said, adding: "And so I think it's a fine line, and I worry more about sticky inflation than I worry about recession."
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