After five consecutive years of annual declines in cumulative value, the overall change in value of all U.S. homes in 2012 should be back in black, with a projected year-end gain of more than $1.3 trillion this year.
Gains were calculated by measuring the difference between cumulative home values as of the end of 2011 and anticipated cumulative home values at the end of 2012. This year’s gain in national cumulative home values — the total value of all homes in a given area — is the first annual increase since U.S. homes gained $483 billion in total value in 2006. Cumulative home values fell each year from 2007 through 2011, with the largest drop coming in 2008, when homes lost more than $3.2 trillion in value, according to Zillow.
The projected gain this year would be the largest year-over-year gain since 2005 and represents a marked recovery from 2011’s annual value loss of approximately $792 billion.
More than 75 percent of the 177 metro areas included in this analysis — 135 in all — experienced cumulative home value gains in 2012. Among the 30 largest metro areas covered by the report, only Philadelphia failed to record an annual gain in cumulative home values. Of the 30 largest metros, those with the largest gains in cumulative value as measured by total dollar volume include Los Angeles ($122.1 billion), San Francisco ($93.3 billion), San Jose, Calif. ($54.7 billion), Phoenix ($52 billion) and Miami-Fort Lauderdale ($47.5 billion).
“After a sluggish 2011, the housing market really turned a corner in 2012, as historic affordability and sustained investor interest helped keep demand at a boil,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. “We expect value gains to continue into 2013. As home values rise, and more homeowners are freed from negative equity, we can expect a continued slow transition to a more normal housing environment driven by local market fundamentals and conditions.”